Today's business leaders must understand the increasingly complex environment. Organizations are open systems, so they must adapt to the environment in which they operate. Matridakis, Hogarth, and Gaba (2010) argued that traditional tools do not adapt well to the new complex environment. Although the complex environment and level of uncertainty cannot be explained by forecasting, most traditional methods, including strategic planning and organizational development method, are attempted to use past trends and predict the future. Therefore, scenario planning gains greater recognition from the manager whose company operates in such a volatile and uncertain environment. Kahane (1992) (cited in Charmack et al 2001) scenario planning is an effective method for understanding critical future uncertainties and investigating organizations' disadvantages. There are many aspects and definitions of scenario planning. “Scenario” means an outline or synopsis of a play. The word scenario comes from the Italian word scene, scene, which comes from the Latin scaena. According to Schwartz (1998:6) scenarios present alternatives to the future. Kahn and Wiener (1967) defined “Scenarios are narrative descriptions of the future” (quoted in AC/UNU Millennium Project) Porter (1985) defined scenarios “an internally coherent vision of what the future might become – not a prediction but a future possible outcome” There is a great discussion about scenarios, whether static or dynamic. Becker (1983) defined scenarios as people imagining the future as a picture. Although Wack (1985), Schoemaker (1991), van der heijden (1996) support the dynamic view of scenarios and state that scenarios are the process of evolution linked to strategic development... half of the document... ...In conclusion the scenarios are linked to the future, according to some authors the scenarios have a static vision, but for others the scenarios include dynamic aspects. Scenario planning is the process of positioning plausible scenarios. Some authors in this field use different names for scenario planning such as scenario thinking, scenario-based planning. It includes two parts, first the scenario development and then the strategy development. O'brien (2003) stated that scenario planning is a soft problem structuring method and a qualitative approach. Schoemaker (1997) stated that scenario planning allows for more subjective and variable elements of the macroenvironment than computer simulation programs. These methods also include system dynamics and risk analysis. It is easy to conclude that scenario planning is a managerial tool of strategic thinking (Bood and Postma 1998).
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